Schwarber vs LHP Has Been Elite
Kyle Schwarber over his last 30 games against left-handed pitching is slashing .392 xBA / .928 xSLG / 320 wRC+. It's only a 28 plate appearance sample, but over that stretch his xBA sits in the 98th percentile, xSLG in the 100th percentile, and wRC+ in the 98th percentile. He has been absolutely elite against lefties recently.
The Pitch Mix Matchup
He's going up against Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski tonight. Wrobleski throws three pitches against left-handed hitters: 4-seam fastballs, sliders, and sinkers. Schwarber crushes all three.
Against 4-seam fastballs from lefties, Schwarber is slashing .304 xBA / .713 xSLG / .463 xwOBA. Against sliders, .280 xBA / .353 xSLG / .463 xwOBA. And against sinkers, .419 xBA / .724 xSLG / .536 xwOBA. There is no pitch in Wrobleski's arsenal that Schwarber doesn't hit well.
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The Strikeout Edge
This might be the biggest part of the play. Wrobleski does not strike guys out. He has a 4th percentile strikeout rate and a 3rd percentile whiff rate against left-handed batters. Striking out is Schwarber's vice — it's the one thing that keeps him from going over on a nightly basis. Against lefties with less than a 50th percentile strikeout rate, he's over 1.5 total bases in 4 out of 5 games. Overall on the season, he's over in 15 out of 25 games (60%) per propsmadness.com.
The Bottom Line
All the underlying stuff looks good here. If Schwarber can keep strikeouts to a minimum, good things tend to happen when he puts the ball in play. And I like strikeouts to be at a minimum tonight against Justin Wrobleski.
A strong majority of my research on this prop was done on the Daily Hitter Matchups Tool on this site — check it out to help yourself with MLB hitter prop research: straightbettin.com/hittermatchups
The Play
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+121) at DraftKings — 1u
Playable down to +115.