The Matchup We've Been Waiting For
This is one of the best games on the NBA calendar. Two MVP candidates going head to head in a game Vegas has as a 2-point spread, meaning we should get a competitive, high-minutes affair from start to finish. These are the exact spots you want to back Jokic on, because quite frankly, he scores when he needs to score to win games.
The Spurs' Jokic Problem
Here's the angle that makes this a must-play. Under Mitch Johnson's coaching, the Spurs have elected to guard Jokic in single coverage with Wembanyama. The philosophy is straightforward — take away Jokic's playmaking, live with Wemby making it tough on him one-on-one, and don't let the rest of Denver get easy looks off Jokic's passing.
Last year in two head-to-head games against San Antonio, Jokic took 36 and 35 field goal attempts. Let that sink in. Over the last three years, Jokic has only taken 35 or more field goal attempts one time outside of those two Spurs games. The single coverage approach doesn't just invite Jokic to score — it practically begs him to.
The Volume Tells the Story
For a player as talented as Nikola Jokic, single coverage is single coverage. It doesn't matter that it's Wembanyama on the other side. When Jokic gets the green light to be aggressive, the results are staggering. In 39 games over the last three years where he's taken 25 or more field goal attempts, Jokic is averaging 36.7 points. That's ten full points above tonight's line.
The Spurs aren't going to change their scheme. Johnson's defensive identity is built around Wemby as the anchor, and they're going to trust him one-on-one again tonight. That means Jokic is getting the same single coverage looks that produced those absurd 35 and 36 shot attempts last season.
The Play
Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel — 1u
High leverage game. Close spread. Single coverage. This is one of the best spots of the season to back the Joker. Playable down to -120.